Prediksi otomotif untuk tahun 2025

Predicting the future is no easy task, just as a weatherman, but I’m going to give it a go anyway.

And I don’t want to make ‘bold’ predictions like ‘Australians will continue to buy lots of SUVs and utes’ or ‘Porsche will make sporty cars’. Instead I want to try and look ahead at the key factors across the industry that are likely to emerge as 2025 plays out.

Toyota will hit back at Ford

The Ford Ranger is Australia’s favourite new vehicle, topping the sales charts for the last several years as we embrace our love of the dual-cab ute. But this means the Toyota HiLux, for so long the dominant force in the ute market, has been relegated to second place.

With a new-generation HiLux due before the end of 2025, Toyota is poised to give Ford a counter-punch. The new HiLux will likely learn some key lessons from the Ranger’s success and apply those along with Toyota’s usual traits to become an even more appealing prospect.

This is likely to include a more serious rival to the Ranger Raptor than the mild GR Sport but will also include hard-working models like the Workmate that could give it the edge on the Ranger.

Ford’s big bet

Ford will have another area of concern in 2025 – the all-important launch of its Ranger PHEV (plug-in hybrid). There is a lot riding on this new variant, as Ford needs its upcoming variety of PHEV models to help it meet the upcoming New Vehicle Efficiency Standards (NVES) as it has only the Mustang Mach-E electric to off-set the literal boat-loads of Rangers and Everests it sells.

Ford is betting big on PHEV, hoping it will appeal to those who want a more efficient model but are simply not ready or unwilling to consider a fully-electric model. Ford Australia has dropped plans for the electric Puma-E to be sold locally, so if the PHEV isn’t popular it makes the future of the brand uncertain as emissions regulations tighten in coming years.

EV v PHEV

Speaking on NVES, the long-overdue government enforcement of cleaner, more fuel-efficient vehicles for Australians has the potential to shake-up the market. While there are clear benefits for car makers to push electric vehicles (EVs) the reality is there doesn’t seem to be enough interest in the car-buying public.

Sales of EVs are still rising, but nowhere near as rapidly as they have in previous years, so it seems the market has reached its initial barrier of early adopters. The costs of EVs have come down and the variety has gone up, so it would appear to be a question of interest or suitability for buyers.

Which is where the rise and rise of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) could be key. Previously seen as a ‘worst of both worlds’ solution, newer PHEV models have increased electric-only range and provide a more affordable option for those looking for a more efficient vehicle.

It will be worth keeping an eye on how these two technologies fare throughout 2025.

Too much ute choice?

Like I said in the intro, predicting Australians will buy more utes in 2025 is hardly a bold prediction – but what about us buying less?

While the likes of the Ford Ranger, Toyota HiLux, Mitsubishi Triton, Isuzu D-Max and more demonstrate our love of dual-cab, ‘one-tonne’ utes, 2024 was the year the ‘US ute’ market exploded, with the Chevrolet Silverado and Ram trucks joined by the Ford F-150 and Toyota Tundra.

And yet despite two big name newcomers, sales were stagnant in the ‘over $100k’ ute market. While the decline was centred around the departing Ram 1500 V8, sales of the Silverado were steady (up less than 10 per cent) and the Tundra arrived too late to have a significant impact.

On the plus side, a new Ram 1500 is coming and the F-150 made a strong early impact, almost matching its Chevy rival.

So it will be worth keeping a close eye on the fortunes of the Silverado, F-150, Tundra and Ram to see if we’ve reached market saturation or if the fresh metal gives big ute buyers more room for growth.

KTM will rebound

The financial troubles that KTM finds itself in were a surprise to many and the problems look significant. But the Austrian brand is simply too big, too popular and too good to fail.
MV Agusta is up for sale, the MotoGP future looks uncertain, but what nobody is saying is that KTM won’t survive. That’s because the brand’s strength with both off-road bikes and road bikes in recent years has made it an industry icon.

It will be a painful year, no doubt with more difficult times, but it’s hard not to imagine in 12 months time KTM will be back on the right path for a successful future.