The end of the Australian-made Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon was a bitter blow for the loyal fans that flocked to these cars for decades – but history has proven it was the right decision.
Last week we reported the demise of the Mazda6, with the once-popular family sedan set to be phased out and not replaced. But it’s just the latest in a long line of models that have disappeared and the ‘family sedan’ becomes an endangered species that could disappear in the not-too-distant future.
Sales of ‘Large Sedans under $70k’, which is the market segment the Commodore and Falcon competed in, have dropped a staggering 99.5 per cent in the past decade. In 2014 Australians bought 42,588 large sedans, of which more than 36,500 were the locally-made Holdens and Fords, but even that was the beginning of the end with the Falcon already in terminal sales decline.
Without that core locally-made content and with consumers beginning to transition en masse to SUVs and utes. The decline across both the ‘family sedan’ sectors of the market, which incorporates medium and large cars, has been as dramatic as it has been consistent.
In the large class the number of available options has dropped from seven cars in 2014 to officially three choices in 2024, but two of those three – the Citroen C5 X and Kia Stinger – have been discontinued, leaving only the Skoda Superb as an available option in 2025. The medium class has seen an equally seismic drop in options, with 22 models a decade ago reduced to seven.
Interestingly, the mid-size sedan market actually finished 2024 with an increase on its previous year sales numbers, in large part thanks to the arrival of the new-look Toyota Camry, which accounts for more than 62 per cent of the total medium-sized sedan sales. Without Toyota’s sedan stalwart the numbers for the family sedan would look very bleak, but there is a surprising saviour that could extend the life of the sedan – the electric car.
The other notable mid-size sedan sales performer was the BYD Seal, the all-electric sedan that was the second best-seller in its segment, behind the Camry. However, when you expand the view and look at ‘Medium Sedans over $60k’ sales in this segment are actually ahead of where they were a decade ago, and that can almost entirely be credited to the success of the electric Tesla Model 3.
Tesla sold more than 17,000 Model 3 in ‘24, which was more than Toyota managed with the Camry, making it the most popular sedan in Australia today. Add to the Model 3 and Seal the BMW i4, Hyundai Ioniq 6 and Polestar 2 and you have a small band of electric cars upholding the future of the sedan – at least for now.
The reality is Model 3 sales were down last year and the entire medium sedan market (across the price spectrum) was largely flat, with the majority of models suffering a sales drop rather than an increase.
Even if there was more support for the Australian car manufacturing industry a decade ago, the harsh truth is sales of the Commodore and Falcon would have almost certainly declined even further as Australian consumer tastes shifted to SUVs and utes.
How long the sedan market stays viable remains to be seen. With only the Skoda Superb in the large family sedan space and the Camry and Seal joined by the Honda Accord, Hyundai Sonata, Skoda Octavia and Volkswagen Passat, time appears to be running out for the former Australian driveway favourite…
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