The Ford Ranger has become too big to fail.
Ford had a very successful 2024, claiming top spot on the new model sales charts with the Ranger ute and its Everest SUV managed to be the sixth best-selling new model. That helped Ford finish second, behind Toyota and jump ahead of Mazda, with sales up more than 14 per cent in 2024 compared to ‘23 and surpassing 100,000 units.
All things considered a very good result for Ford… but look a little closer and there are some reasons Ford Australia management should be concerned about its future. Namely the brand’s dependance on the Ranger. Put simply, Ford Australia’s success or failure rides solely on its flagship model.
The Ranger accounts for more than 62 per cent of Ford’s total sales locally, and when combined with the closely-related Everest the pair are responsible for nearly 90 per cent of all sales (88.9 per cent, to be exact). Which explains why Ford Australia invested in a three year exclusive lease on a cargo ship in 2023 to ensure its supply line of Rangers and Everests wouldn’t be compromised.
But what happens if the Ranger hits a bump in the road and its popularity wanes? It seems unlikely given the steady interest in its diverse line-up and Ford’s investment in special editions and its planned expansion with the incoming Super Duty variant, but no model is impervious to trouble. Who would have predicted the Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon would go from best-sellers to oblivion in a decade?
Toyota Australia chief, Sean Hanley, forecasted this week some potential softening of the Ford Ranger/Toyota HiLux duopoly in the ute market with new rivals set to launch in 2025 including the BYD Shark 6 and Kia Tasman amid an overall softer market.
“Looking towards the future, we already know that the number of models available to Australian buyers will expand rapidly,” Hanley said. “They’ll all be competing for an overall market that is likely to remain steady, which suggests that the average sales per model will come down.”
Any decline for the Ranger specifically will mean a drop for Ford holistically, so the brand needs to consider greater diversification in 2025 and beyond. Which appears tricky as recent years have seen a steady contraction of what it offers with Fiesta, Focus, Puma and Escape all dropped. The loss of the Escape is a particularly problematic one as the on-going strength of the mid-size SUV market, with the Toyota RAV4, Mitsubishi Outlander, Mazda CX-5 and Kia Sportage all amongst the country’s top 10 sellers.
Ford has also quietly dropped plans to offer the electric version of the Puma and instead focus on plug-in hybrid (PHEV) technology to meet the demands of the New Vehicle Efficiency Standards (NVES) and its customers. There will be PHEV versions of both the Ranger and its third best-selling model, the Transit Custom, in 2025. Whether these prove a sales success, particularly the Ranger PHEV in the face of the Shark 6, will be crucial to Ford’s mid-term future in Australia.
On the positive side Ford is leaning in hard on its success in the commercial vehicle space with its range of Transit vans and the Tourneo people mover, while the F-150 got off to a strong start in ‘24 notching nearly 2500 sales.
A return to the mainstream SUV space appears unlikely though, with the Escape and Puma no longer on the agenda and the Bronco Sport never an option for our right-hand drive market.
Instead, Ford will need to hope the Ranger PHEV and Super Duty can continue to keep it at, or near, the top of the sales charts for the years to come.
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