Australia has reached ‘peak ute’

Toyota is predicting the ute market may have reached its limit despite more new contenders.

It turns out Australia’s love affair with ute has a limit after all.

Toyota Australia boss, Sean Hanley, has predicted that the country is running out of new ute buyers at the same time the number of ute models to choose from grows. As a result, even incredibly popular models like the Toyota HiLux and Ford Ranger, which have been the best-selling new vehicles for several years, could suffer a sales stall or even a decline.

Instead, Hanley believes an SUV, most like Toyota’s own RAV4, will become Australia’s most popular individual vehicle in the near-future. Sales of the RAV4 have been strong and steady for several years, peaking in the last year with best-selling months since mid-2024.

“ The most telling figure from January [sales data], though… is that hybrid sales grew by more than 50 per cent,” Hanley said. “Once again, RAV4 led the way. The seventh month in a row, it has been Australia’s best-selling vehicle. And of course, naturally, I would think this does beg the question, could an SUV become Australia’s best selling vehicle?

“Or, maybe we should put it another way, have we, in fact, reached what I call peak ute? The answer to both questions, I think, is very likely. We know that ute buyers can look forward to having much greater choice available to them. But despite that, total ute sales are likely, I think, to remain fairly static.

“And the more fragmented segment will make it increasingly difficult for a single model to dominate the sales charts. With the ute under challenge as Australia’s most popular vehicle, it is more than possible, I think, an SUV, perhaps, and I say perhaps, even our very own RAV4, may very well rise to the top of the sales charts within the next couple of years.

“So watch that space very carefully as we progress.”

While Toyota is preparing to launch a new-generation HiLux, several big-name newcomers have entered the market or are about to, including the BYD Shark 6 and Kia Tasman. There are also more rivals from China, such as the LDV Terron 9 and T60, and likely a new challenger from MG.

— Contributing Andrew van Leeuwen